Bitcoin Called Oct 20, 2026 at $82,445. Score today: 75 out of 100 under our published rule.
| Track record | +10 |
|---|---|
| Size (top 20) | +10 |
| Trading activity | −10 |
| Coins still to come | +10 |
| Distance from peak | +5 |
What would change it: It would drop to Watch if the score fell below 72 (4 points lower). Every call is tracked on the Scorecard.
Research, not financial advice. A verdict rates the coin's health under a fixed rule; it is not a price prediction or advice for your situation. Crypto can lose most or all of its value.
What it is
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency. It was described in a 2008 paper published under the name Satoshi Nakamoto, whose real identity is still unknown. The network went live in January 2009, and coins first changed hands for money in 2010. Its basic job is to let people hold and send value without a bank or company in the middle. Today most people treat it as a long-term store of value rather than something to spend at the store.
Bitcoin runs on proof of work. Computers called miners compete to bundle waiting transactions into a new block about every ten minutes, using electricity to do it. The winner collects newly created bitcoin plus the fees users attached. Thousands of independent nodes check every block against the same rules, so no single party can quietly change balances.
No company or foundation runs Bitcoin. Software changes are proposed and argued over in public, and they only take effect if node operators choose to run them. The code limits supply to 21 million coins. The reward for mining a block is cut in half every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. The most recent cut, in April 2024, brought it down to 3.125 BTC, and the last new coins are expected around 2140.
What can go wrong
- A handful of large mining pools produce most new blocks. Pools cannot take anyone's coins, but if a few of them coordinated they could delay or censor transactions.
- Transactions cannot be reversed. Sending to the wrong address or to a scammer means the coins are gone, and there is no help desk to call.
- A growing share of bitcoin is held by a few custodians on behalf of exchange-traded funds, public companies and exchanges. If one of them fails or freezes withdrawals, people who own bitcoin through it are exposed.
- The mining reward keeps shrinking, so over time the network will rely more on transaction fees to pay for its security. Whether fees will be enough is an open question.
- Researchers expect a powerful enough quantum computer could one day break the signatures protecting older and reused addresses. No such machine exists yet and developers are discussing upgrades, but the timeline is uncertain.
If you hold bitcoin in your own wallet, the recovery phrase is the money: anyone who sees it can take everything, and losing it means losing access for good. No real exchange, wallet company or support agent will ever ask you for it.
Safety checks
- Track recordGoodTrading since 2009, about 17 years. It has been through at least one full market cycle.
- Trading activityCaution$27.13 billion traded in the last 24 hours, 1.6% of its market value. That's thin for its size: big holders selling could move the price more than you'd expect.
- Coins still to comeGood20.1 million of 21.0 million maximum coins are in circulation, so about 4% are still to be released. Little new supply is left to hit the market.
- Distance from its peakGoodDown 35% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
- Past yearFor context−25.3% over the past year.
- Contract powersGoodThis is the native coin of its own network, not a token issued by a smart contract, so there's no owner key that can mint, freeze or tax it. Changes to the rules go through the network's upgrade process.
History of trouble and big events
- 2010: A software bug briefly created about 184 billion bitcoin out of nothing; developers shipped a fix within hours and the bad block was thrown out.
- 2014: Mt. Gox, then the largest bitcoin exchange, collapsed after losing hundreds of thousands of customers' coins.
- 2024: The first U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs began trading in January, and the fourth halving followed in April.
Holding a token on a smaller network, or got sent one you don't recognize? Run its address through the free checker. Copycat tokens often borrow big names.